If fluff and folderol were electrical energy the Super Bowl could power America for the next millennium. The “event” has become a tiresome six-day carnival followed by an equally tedious six-hour pre-game show on Sunday afternoon. Each year the halftime show is more garish than last. Add Meatloaf, Korn, Vanilla Fudge and Cream to this year’s Black-Eyed Peas and your Super Bowl party is fully supplied.
Somewhere amidst the nonsense is a football game, which is what the Super Bowl is all about. Green Bay and Pittsburgh are so similar and evenly matched that the actual game should help football fans forget the over-hyped media circus. One thing is certain; there’ll be more yellow (uniforms, not flags) in Super Bowl XLV than in any game since the Steelers beat the Rams in 1980. Uniforms, however, are the only thing “yellow” about the Packers and Steelers. Both bring hard-hitting, aggressive, blitzing defenses to Dallas.
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Statistically the Packers match up well against the Pittsburgh offense. Green Bay ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and second in scoring defense. The Packers love to pressure the quarterback, recording 46 sacks during the regular season (second only to Pittsburgh). Thus opposing quarterbacks completed only 56-percent of their passes (4th) for 6.5 yards per play and recorded a league worst passer rating (67.2).
Green Bay must apply that pressure Ben Roethlisberger if they’re to be successful. Big Ben is tough and he’s no stranger to the Super Bowl spotlight. But he can’t do a thing when he’s on his back. The Packers have reason to believe they can hit Roethlisberger hard and often. The Steelers line allowed 78 QB hits and 43 sacks, both ranked in the bottom third of the league. Also, inured Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey is out for Sunday. His replacement had exchange issues with Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game.
Pressure on Roethlisberger opens opportunities for Green Bay’s secondary to make big plays. The Packers allowed only 16 touchdown passes (4th) while recording 24 INTs (2nd). Their chances increase immensely with a pick or two, especially in the red zone where Pittsburgh converted only 51-percent of the time during the regular season.
The opposite holds true if Roethlisberger has time to throw. Few teams went deep as well as Pittsburgh. Green Bay wasn’t exactly susceptible to the long ball, but they surrendered enough pass plays of greater than 20 yards to cause some concern in that area. Big Ben will use his strong arm and big play receiver Mike Wallace (21 yards per catch, 10 TDs) to test the Packer secondary.
Pittsburgh’s offensive advantage lies in the running game. The Steelers weren’t the league’s top rushing team, but they did manage 120 yards per game and more than four yards per carry behind 1273-yard rusher Rashard Mendenhall. Green Bay ranked only 18th against the run and surrendered 4.7 yards per attempt (28th). Green Bay’s task isn’t hopeless, however. Pittsburgh will find running in the red zone difficult. The Packers gave up only six rushing TDs all year (3rd) and, as stated earlier, the Steelers weren’t great inside the twenty.
When Green Bay has the ball
There’s no reason whatsoever for the Green Bay Packers to run the football Sunday night. James Starks did a fair job late in the year. But the Packers leading rusher, Brandon Jackson, averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. They ranked 24th in yards per game, 25th in yards per carry and rushed for only 11 touchdowns (18th). The lone bright spot for Green Bay’s running game is ball security; they fumbled only four times in the regular season.
Pittsburgh is by far the NFL stingiest run defense. Opponents rushed for only five touchdowns, averaged three yards per carry and 60 yards per game. Forget about the lethargic Packer running game breaking a big play. They had only four runs of more than 20 yards all year while Pittsburgh surrendered only one such run. Anything positive Green Bay can muster on the ground is a huge plus. But only a breakdown on the Steelers part will make that possible.
The lack of a running game places the Packers chances squarely on Aaron Rogers. He’ll be harassed by the only pass rush to exceed Green Bay in QB sacks. Advantage Pittsburgh. Their pass rush won’t be slowed by the anemic Green Bay ground game. But Rogers is a strong-armed quarterback who is highly mobile and throws accurately on the run. There will be some opportunities if Rogers moves outside the pocket.
Green Bay’s advantage comes in completion percentage. Rogers had a 65-percent completion rate while opposing quarterbacks connected on 61-percent of their throws against Pittsburgh. The Packers need to make the passing game their form of ball control. Third down at any distance is tough against the rush happy Steelers. But Rogers can buy time with his feet and the Packers have enough receivers to spread the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers must contain Rogers in the pocket where they can hit him often and force a fumble or an interception.
Special Teams
Neither team excelled on special teams, nor are there exploitable disparities between them in any area of the kicking or punting game. If there’s a special teams edge it belongs to the Steelers. Pittsburgh connected on 78-percent of their field goal attempts while Green Bay converted just 70-percent. That doesn’t seem like much, especially when neither team plays home games under kicker-friendly conditions. But the open end of Heinz Field makes it the NFL’s toughest venue for converting field goals. That degree of difficulty plus an eight point edge in accuracy percentage equals a clear advantage for the Steelers.
How does it end?
Aaron Rogers will have a sound game and the Packers will move the ball. But without a ground game to slow the Pittsburgh pass rush Green Bay will become one-dimensional, making it difficult to sustain drives. The Steelers should simply play their defense; stuff the run and pressure the quarterback. An interception or two will be more than the Packers can overcome. Pittsburgh pressure will make it difficult for the Packers receivers to finish their routes. Third and five or greater is Green Bay’s worst enemy.
The running game is the key for Pittsburgh. They needn’t be dominant on the ground; just good enough to tire the Green Bay defense and counter their blitz. A few well-timed draws or screens should benefit Pittsburgh, taking pressure off Roethlisberger and opening up deep routes for Mike Wallace. If the Packers blanket Wallace on deep routes Roethlisberger can find Hines Ward and Heath Miller underneath.
Pittsburgh will hoist its seventh Lombardi Trophy, solidifying their status as the NFL’s most successful franchise of the last forty years. The defense will play the major role, but the quarterback will get the glory. Ben Roethlisberger, despite his off-field drama, earns legendary status in the Steel City with his third Super Bowl title, equaling Troy Aikman and Tom Brady. He also moves a step closer to joining Bart Starr, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the most successful championship signal-callers in NFL history.
Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Green Bay Packers 14
Statistics and league rankings: NFL.com.
Red zone efficiency: www.teamrankings.com
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Bowl. Show all posts
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Super Bowl XLIV promises to be a shootout
When the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints were on winning streaks that had the ‘72 Dolphins sweating bullets, experts labeled both teams as Super Bowl favorites. It’s official; the dream match up is here. Now let’s look at which team will live the dream, which won’t and why.
Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
Payton Manning’s presence is enough to like the Colts’ offense against New Orleans. The hard facts solidify that position. Indy boasts the NFL’s 9th best overall offense even without a semblance of a running game. Indy ranks first in 3rd down efficiency, commits few penalties and limits turnovers.
Look for Manning to challenge the Super Bowl record for passing yardage (414 yards, Kurt Warner, Super Bowl XXXIV). That’s not an exaggeration. Payton leads a potent passing game (282 ypg) against the 26th rated pass defense. Don’t look for the Saints to pressure Manning much, either. Indy’s offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. If the Saints can manage to get to Payton, Dallas Clark (100 rec.) and Joseph Addai (51 rec.) provide more than adequate safety valves.
There is one upside for the New Orleans pass defense and it’s one they must utilize. Only two teams intercepted more passes than the Saints. Darren Sharper had nine picks himself, returning three for touchdowns. All told the Saints defense produced eight touchdowns in 2009. In an offensive shootout, and this promises to be one, a defensive score will amount to a 14-point swing.
About the best that can be said for the Colts’ running game (32) is they’re facing the Saints rush defense. New Orleans allowed 122 yards per game (21) and 4.5 yards per carry (24-T). Indy’s running game is too weak to take full advantage. However, Colts runners can make a difference in a couple of areas. Only Green Bay and San Diego lost fewer fumbles than Indianapolis and the Saints were dead last in forcing fumbles.
Just three teams allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Saints this season while Indianapolis’ offense ranked 12th in that department. This gives the Colts runners a chance to relieve pressure from the passing game. New Orleans must respect the run to some degree inside the red zone, meaning they can’t pack the secondary to cut off the passing lanes.
Saints Offense vs. Colt’s Defense
The story doesn’t change much when New Orleans has the ball. Drew Breese should find passing opportunities aplenty. Look for receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem to have big games. The Saints have the NFL’s best offense (403.8 ypg) and a plus-11 turnover differential. What’s more, they convert 45-percent of their third downs while Indy’s defense was abysmal in that area (31).
The Saints explosive passing game is about as secret as a John Edwards sex tape. But the key to the passing game lies in the Saints completion percentage (1), interceptions (6) and sacks allowed (4). The Colts defense ranked 26th, 15th and 16th in those categories respectively. Combine those stats with Indy’s third down defense and the Saints should sustain drives.
The wildcard is Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks). His ankle is a question. He isn’t practicing and was listed as “questionable” on Saturday morning. If he can’t go, or is ineffective, the Saints can double Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks) and effectively eliminate Indy’s pass rush.
If the Colts have an advantage on defense it’s that no team surrendered fewer long pass plays. Being forced into a dink and dunk passing attack could frustrate the Saints, who like to stretch the field. Breese averaged 8.5 yards per attempt (3) this year while both Colston and Meachem averaged more than 15 yards per catch.
What’s often overlooked is that New Orleans can run the football. They average 131 yards per game (6) while Indy is 24th against the run and yields 4.3 yards per carry. Just as the Saints don’t throw interceptions they don’t fumble, either. And the Colts ranked 27th in forced fumbles. A solid rushing day from the Saints could make Sunday night seem endless for Colts fans.
Special Teams
Special teams offers no decisive advantage for either club. Both ranked in the bottom third of the league in field goal percentage, even with both kickers working predominantly in domed stadiums. That could be worth remembering if the game hinges on a kick, or if the weather turns sour.
There’s only one distinct special teams advantage and it belongs to New Orleans. Their kickoff return team was the NFL’s fourth best, averaging 24.4 yards per return. They were also fourth in returns of over 40 yards. The return game should keep the Saints in control of field position, forcing Manning and Co. to take the long route to the end zone.
With neither team counting a dependable advantage on defense and the Saints’ special teams edge slight at best this game comes down to offense.
Keys for New Orleans
Look for the Saints to run the ball when they need to, which will make life much easier for Drew Breese. New Orleans must remain patient and work the underneath passing routes. A little ball control will loosen and tire the Colts defense. New Orleans should move the ball with relative ease, especially in the fourth quarter.
On defense the Saints opportunistic secondary must capitalize on any Manning mistake. There aren’t likely to be many. A defensive touchdown is a distinct possibility and a welcome bonus.
Keys for Indianapolis
Indy’s defense must find a way to get off the field. They don’t force turnovers and are woeful on third down. Drew Breese will get his yards. Fine, the Colts need to stop the run. As the old saying goes, there are three possible results in the passing game and two of them are bad. A little rest would be an unexpected blessing. The Colts offense was 31st in time of possession, an overrated stat but useful in this case.
Offensively the Colts simply need to do what they do. The lack of a running game leaves them one dimensional. But so what? It’s worked all year. Plus, Manning can dissect and exploit any blitz or stunt package the Saints care to run. Protect Payton and allow him to read. If he can decipher the Jets top-ranked defense he should have little trouble exposing the Saints. Payton, Wayne, Collie and Clark stay on the same page. They know what each looks for in nearly all situations. The result Sunday evening should be key third down conversions and a few big plays downfield.
The Pick
Most statistical categories where there is a clear-cut advantage lean toward the New Orleans Saints. But this game promises to be the Gunfight at the Sun Life Corral. No offense to Drew Breese, but he’s playing a Clanton to Payton Manning’s Wyatt Earp.
Indianapolis Colts 38
New Orleans Saints 35
Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
Payton Manning’s presence is enough to like the Colts’ offense against New Orleans. The hard facts solidify that position. Indy boasts the NFL’s 9th best overall offense even without a semblance of a running game. Indy ranks first in 3rd down efficiency, commits few penalties and limits turnovers.
Look for Manning to challenge the Super Bowl record for passing yardage (414 yards, Kurt Warner, Super Bowl XXXIV). That’s not an exaggeration. Payton leads a potent passing game (282 ypg) against the 26th rated pass defense. Don’t look for the Saints to pressure Manning much, either. Indy’s offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. If the Saints can manage to get to Payton, Dallas Clark (100 rec.) and Joseph Addai (51 rec.) provide more than adequate safety valves.
There is one upside for the New Orleans pass defense and it’s one they must utilize. Only two teams intercepted more passes than the Saints. Darren Sharper had nine picks himself, returning three for touchdowns. All told the Saints defense produced eight touchdowns in 2009. In an offensive shootout, and this promises to be one, a defensive score will amount to a 14-point swing.
About the best that can be said for the Colts’ running game (32) is they’re facing the Saints rush defense. New Orleans allowed 122 yards per game (21) and 4.5 yards per carry (24-T). Indy’s running game is too weak to take full advantage. However, Colts runners can make a difference in a couple of areas. Only Green Bay and San Diego lost fewer fumbles than Indianapolis and the Saints were dead last in forcing fumbles.
Just three teams allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Saints this season while Indianapolis’ offense ranked 12th in that department. This gives the Colts runners a chance to relieve pressure from the passing game. New Orleans must respect the run to some degree inside the red zone, meaning they can’t pack the secondary to cut off the passing lanes.
Saints Offense vs. Colt’s Defense
The story doesn’t change much when New Orleans has the ball. Drew Breese should find passing opportunities aplenty. Look for receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem to have big games. The Saints have the NFL’s best offense (403.8 ypg) and a plus-11 turnover differential. What’s more, they convert 45-percent of their third downs while Indy’s defense was abysmal in that area (31).
The Saints explosive passing game is about as secret as a John Edwards sex tape. But the key to the passing game lies in the Saints completion percentage (1), interceptions (6) and sacks allowed (4). The Colts defense ranked 26th, 15th and 16th in those categories respectively. Combine those stats with Indy’s third down defense and the Saints should sustain drives.
The wildcard is Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks). His ankle is a question. He isn’t practicing and was listed as “questionable” on Saturday morning. If he can’t go, or is ineffective, the Saints can double Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks) and effectively eliminate Indy’s pass rush.
If the Colts have an advantage on defense it’s that no team surrendered fewer long pass plays. Being forced into a dink and dunk passing attack could frustrate the Saints, who like to stretch the field. Breese averaged 8.5 yards per attempt (3) this year while both Colston and Meachem averaged more than 15 yards per catch.
What’s often overlooked is that New Orleans can run the football. They average 131 yards per game (6) while Indy is 24th against the run and yields 4.3 yards per carry. Just as the Saints don’t throw interceptions they don’t fumble, either. And the Colts ranked 27th in forced fumbles. A solid rushing day from the Saints could make Sunday night seem endless for Colts fans.
Special Teams
Special teams offers no decisive advantage for either club. Both ranked in the bottom third of the league in field goal percentage, even with both kickers working predominantly in domed stadiums. That could be worth remembering if the game hinges on a kick, or if the weather turns sour.
There’s only one distinct special teams advantage and it belongs to New Orleans. Their kickoff return team was the NFL’s fourth best, averaging 24.4 yards per return. They were also fourth in returns of over 40 yards. The return game should keep the Saints in control of field position, forcing Manning and Co. to take the long route to the end zone.
With neither team counting a dependable advantage on defense and the Saints’ special teams edge slight at best this game comes down to offense.
Keys for New Orleans
Look for the Saints to run the ball when they need to, which will make life much easier for Drew Breese. New Orleans must remain patient and work the underneath passing routes. A little ball control will loosen and tire the Colts defense. New Orleans should move the ball with relative ease, especially in the fourth quarter.
On defense the Saints opportunistic secondary must capitalize on any Manning mistake. There aren’t likely to be many. A defensive touchdown is a distinct possibility and a welcome bonus.
Keys for Indianapolis
Indy’s defense must find a way to get off the field. They don’t force turnovers and are woeful on third down. Drew Breese will get his yards. Fine, the Colts need to stop the run. As the old saying goes, there are three possible results in the passing game and two of them are bad. A little rest would be an unexpected blessing. The Colts offense was 31st in time of possession, an overrated stat but useful in this case.
Offensively the Colts simply need to do what they do. The lack of a running game leaves them one dimensional. But so what? It’s worked all year. Plus, Manning can dissect and exploit any blitz or stunt package the Saints care to run. Protect Payton and allow him to read. If he can decipher the Jets top-ranked defense he should have little trouble exposing the Saints. Payton, Wayne, Collie and Clark stay on the same page. They know what each looks for in nearly all situations. The result Sunday evening should be key third down conversions and a few big plays downfield.
The Pick
Most statistical categories where there is a clear-cut advantage lean toward the New Orleans Saints. But this game promises to be the Gunfight at the Sun Life Corral. No offense to Drew Breese, but he’s playing a Clanton to Payton Manning’s Wyatt Earp.
Indianapolis Colts 38
New Orleans Saints 35
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