Super Bowl XLIV promises to be a shootout

When the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints were on winning streaks that had the ‘72 Dolphins sweating bullets, experts labeled both teams as Super Bowl favorites. It’s official; the dream match up is here. Now let’s look at which team will live the dream, which won’t and why.

Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
Payton Manning’s presence is enough to like the Colts’ offense against New Orleans. The hard facts solidify that position. Indy boasts the NFL’s 9th best overall offense even without a semblance of a running game. Indy ranks first in 3rd down efficiency, commits few penalties and limits turnovers.

Look for Manning to challenge the Super Bowl record for passing yardage (414 yards, Kurt Warner, Super Bowl XXXIV). That’s not an exaggeration. Payton leads a potent passing game (282 ypg) against the 26th rated pass defense. Don’t look for the Saints to pressure Manning much, either. Indy’s offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. If the Saints can manage to get to Payton, Dallas Clark (100 rec.) and Joseph Addai (51 rec.) provide more than adequate safety valves.

There is one upside for the New Orleans pass defense and it’s one they must utilize. Only two teams intercepted more passes than the Saints. Darren Sharper had nine picks himself, returning three for touchdowns. All told the Saints defense produced eight touchdowns in 2009. In an offensive shootout, and this promises to be one, a defensive score will amount to a 14-point swing.

About the best that can be said for the Colts’ running game (32) is they’re facing the Saints rush defense. New Orleans allowed 122 yards per game (21) and 4.5 yards per carry (24-T). Indy’s running game is too weak to take full advantage. However, Colts runners can make a difference in a couple of areas. Only Green Bay and San Diego lost fewer fumbles than Indianapolis and the Saints were dead last in forcing fumbles.

Just three teams allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Saints this season while Indianapolis’ offense ranked 12th in that department. This gives the Colts runners a chance to relieve pressure from the passing game. New Orleans must respect the run to some degree inside the red zone, meaning they can’t pack the secondary to cut off the passing lanes.

Saints Offense vs. Colt’s Defense
The story doesn’t change much when New Orleans has the ball. Drew Breese should find passing opportunities aplenty. Look for receivers Marques Colston and Robert Meachem to have big games. The Saints have the NFL’s best offense (403.8 ypg) and a plus-11 turnover differential. What’s more, they convert 45-percent of their third downs while Indy’s defense was abysmal in that area (31).

The Saints explosive passing game is about as secret as a John Edwards sex tape. But the key to the passing game lies in the Saints completion percentage (1), interceptions (6) and sacks allowed (4). The Colts defense ranked 26th, 15th and 16th in those categories respectively. Combine those stats with Indy’s third down defense and the Saints should sustain drives.

The wildcard is Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks). His ankle is a question. He isn’t practicing and was listed as “questionable” on Saturday morning. If he can’t go, or is ineffective, the Saints can double Robert Mathis (9.5 sacks) and effectively eliminate Indy’s pass rush.

If the Colts have an advantage on defense it’s that no team surrendered fewer long pass plays. Being forced into a dink and dunk passing attack could frustrate the Saints, who like to stretch the field. Breese averaged 8.5 yards per attempt (3) this year while both Colston and Meachem averaged more than 15 yards per catch.

What’s often overlooked is that New Orleans can run the football. They average 131 yards per game (6) while Indy is 24th against the run and yields 4.3 yards per carry. Just as the Saints don’t throw interceptions they don’t fumble, either. And the Colts ranked 27th in forced fumbles. A solid rushing day from the Saints could make Sunday night seem endless for Colts fans.

Special Teams
Special teams offers no decisive advantage for either club. Both ranked in the bottom third of the league in field goal percentage, even with both kickers working predominantly in domed stadiums. That could be worth remembering if the game hinges on a kick, or if the weather turns sour.

There’s only one distinct special teams advantage and it belongs to New Orleans. Their kickoff return team was the NFL’s fourth best, averaging 24.4 yards per return. They were also fourth in returns of over 40 yards. The return game should keep the Saints in control of field position, forcing Manning and Co. to take the long route to the end zone.

With neither team counting a dependable advantage on defense and the Saints’ special teams edge slight at best this game comes down to offense.

Keys for New Orleans
Look for the Saints to run the ball when they need to, which will make life much easier for Drew Breese. New Orleans must remain patient and work the underneath passing routes. A little ball control will loosen and tire the Colts defense. New Orleans should move the ball with relative ease, especially in the fourth quarter.

On defense the Saints opportunistic secondary must capitalize on any Manning mistake. There aren’t likely to be many. A defensive touchdown is a distinct possibility and a welcome bonus.

Keys for Indianapolis
Indy’s defense must find a way to get off the field. They don’t force turnovers and are woeful on third down. Drew Breese will get his yards. Fine, the Colts need to stop the run. As the old saying goes, there are three possible results in the passing game and two of them are bad. A little rest would be an unexpected blessing. The Colts offense was 31st in time of possession, an overrated stat but useful in this case.

Offensively the Colts simply need to do what they do. The lack of a running game leaves them one dimensional. But so what? It’s worked all year. Plus, Manning can dissect and exploit any blitz or stunt package the Saints care to run. Protect Payton and allow him to read. If he can decipher the Jets top-ranked defense he should have little trouble exposing the Saints. Payton, Wayne, Collie and Clark stay on the same page. They know what each looks for in nearly all situations. The result Sunday evening should be key third down conversions and a few big plays downfield.

The Pick
Most statistical categories where there is a clear-cut advantage lean toward the New Orleans Saints. But this game promises to be the Gunfight at the Sun Life Corral. No offense to Drew Breese, but he’s playing a Clanton to Payton Manning’s Wyatt Earp.

Indianapolis Colts 38
New Orleans Saints 35