The Middle East reaches a fork in the road

A fork in the road tells travelers that their current path has ended. The travelers are then compelled to decide among the four choices a fork presents. The first options are obvious; choose one of the new paths. The third option is to be satisfied with their current position and remain at the fork. The fourth option is to return the way they came.

Egyptians have followed Hosni Mubarak’s path for more than a generation. But autocratic rule has little respect for the individual and can carry a people only so far. Egypt has reached the end of Mubarak’s path. They arrived at the proverbial fork in the road and must choose from the four options.

Eliminate the third and fourth alternatives. Egyptians have no interest in revisiting the past or maintaining the status quo. The street protests and Mubarak’s subsequent resignation prove their desire to go in a new direction, with both the right and left fork presenting a series of unsettling unknowns.

How much time will pass before the wisdom in Egypt’s selection is manifest? Will their new path equal greater freedom, or produce a more caustic brand of totalitarianism than experienced under their former ruler, as did Iran’s revolution in 1979? How will Egypt’s new direction affect its relationship with the West, particularly the United States? As of now there are no adequate answers, only opinions.

Captain Ramius (Sean Connery, the Hunt for Red October) stated it so well, “A little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don’t you think?”

American history began in revolt against a tyrannical sovereign, only our revolution was bloodier than Egypt’s has thus far been. Thus Americans admire the underdog, the courageous few who will thumb their nose at the despot. However, as much as we would love to see liberty flourish in the Arab lands, allegiance with the protesters is premature. That fact hasn’t kept President Obama from singing their praises.

Obama said that “Egypt will never be the same.” He is correct, change is coming and Egypt will be different. Yet neither he nor anyone else knows how the transformation will unfold or what future waits down either fork the Egyptians follow. Free elections, democracy in action, don’t guarantee freedom.

For instance, one of the Iraq War’s key objectives was to depose a dictator and establish a democratically elected government. Such a government would, theoretically, produce a free Middle Eastern state with close ties to the West. That mission is complete. Saddam Hussein is gone and Iraqis have chosen their path. But the result hasn’t been the Jeffersonian Republic we had expected or hoped for, at least thus far.

Post-Saddam Iraq is a Shiite Muslim theocracy, governed by the same religious doctrine that guides Iran’s Ayatollahs. Liberty, particularly religious liberty, isn’t common under such rule. Iraqi Christians have suffered repeated assaults on not only their religious liberty but their very lives. And the Shiite attitude toward women is in no way conducive to freedom.

Egypt’s new path could lead in a similar direction. What’s more, Egypt isn’t the only predominantly Muslim nation facing a choice. Many such nations stand at a comparable fork in the road. In each case--Algeria, Tunisia, Bahrain, Iran, etc.--protesters are targeting authoritarian regimes. Their uprisings have brought the United States to its own fork in the road.

Americans admire the revolutionary spirit and desire for self-determination. But revolts are worthwhile only when they result in free nations with peaceful intentions. It’s too early to determine that freedom and peace are coming to Egypt or to the Middle East overall. In fact, there’s little reason to believe either fork will foster greater liberty, prosperity, or peace with Western Civilization within the Islamic world.

Middle East protesters have no apparent desire to retrace their steps or remain at the fork. They will choose one of the paths ahead. But it’s quite possible that both paths will lead them to another, perhaps harsher, form of authoritarian oppression. Let’s not be hasty in pronouncing 2011 the year Arabs and Muslims chose the road to liberty.