Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

If fluff and folderol were electrical energy the Super Bowl could power America for the next millennium. The “event” has become a tiresome six-day carnival followed by an equally tedious six-hour pre-game show on Sunday afternoon. Each year the halftime show is more garish than last. Add Meatloaf, Korn, Vanilla Fudge and Cream to this year’s Black-Eyed Peas and your Super Bowl party is fully supplied.

Somewhere amidst the nonsense is a football game, which is what the Super Bowl is all about. Green Bay and Pittsburgh are so similar and evenly matched that the actual game should help football fans forget the over-hyped media circus. One thing is certain; there’ll be more yellow (uniforms, not flags) in Super Bowl XLV than in any game since the Steelers beat the Rams in 1980. Uniforms, however, are the only thing “yellow” about the Packers and Steelers. Both bring hard-hitting, aggressive, blitzing defenses to Dallas.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Statistically the Packers match up well against the Pittsburgh offense. Green Bay ranked fifth in the NFL in total defense and second in scoring defense. The Packers love to pressure the quarterback, recording 46 sacks during the regular season (second only to Pittsburgh). Thus opposing quarterbacks completed only 56-percent of their passes (4th) for 6.5 yards per play and recorded a league worst passer rating (67.2).

Green Bay must apply that pressure Ben Roethlisberger if they’re to be successful. Big Ben is tough and he’s no stranger to the Super Bowl spotlight. But he can’t do a thing when he’s on his back. The Packers have reason to believe they can hit Roethlisberger hard and often. The Steelers line allowed 78 QB hits and 43 sacks, both ranked in the bottom third of the league. Also, inured Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey is out for Sunday. His replacement had exchange issues with Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game.

Pressure on Roethlisberger opens opportunities for Green Bay’s secondary to make big plays. The Packers allowed only 16 touchdown passes (4th) while recording 24 INTs (2nd). Their chances increase immensely with a pick or two, especially in the red zone where Pittsburgh converted only 51-percent of the time during the regular season.

The opposite holds true if Roethlisberger has time to throw. Few teams went deep as well as Pittsburgh. Green Bay wasn’t exactly susceptible to the long ball, but they surrendered enough pass plays of greater than 20 yards to cause some concern in that area. Big Ben will use his strong arm and big play receiver Mike Wallace (21 yards per catch, 10 TDs) to test the Packer secondary.

Pittsburgh’s offensive advantage lies in the running game. The Steelers weren’t the league’s top rushing team, but they did manage 120 yards per game and more than four yards per carry behind 1273-yard rusher Rashard Mendenhall. Green Bay ranked only 18th against the run and surrendered 4.7 yards per attempt (28th). Green Bay’s task isn’t hopeless, however. Pittsburgh will find running in the red zone difficult. The Packers gave up only six rushing TDs all year (3rd) and, as stated earlier, the Steelers weren’t great inside the twenty.

When Green Bay has the ball

There’s no reason whatsoever for the Green Bay Packers to run the football Sunday night. James Starks did a fair job late in the year. But the Packers leading rusher, Brandon Jackson, averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. They ranked 24th in yards per game, 25th in yards per carry and rushed for only 11 touchdowns (18th). The lone bright spot for Green Bay’s running game is ball security; they fumbled only four times in the regular season.

Pittsburgh is by far the NFL stingiest run defense. Opponents rushed for only five touchdowns, averaged three yards per carry and 60 yards per game. Forget about the lethargic Packer running game breaking a big play. They had only four runs of more than 20 yards all year while Pittsburgh surrendered only one such run. Anything positive Green Bay can muster on the ground is a huge plus. But only a breakdown on the Steelers part will make that possible.

The lack of a running game places the Packers chances squarely on Aaron Rogers. He’ll be harassed by the only pass rush to exceed Green Bay in QB sacks. Advantage Pittsburgh. Their pass rush won’t be slowed by the anemic Green Bay ground game. But Rogers is a strong-armed quarterback who is highly mobile and throws accurately on the run. There will be some opportunities if Rogers moves outside the pocket.

Green Bay’s advantage comes in completion percentage. Rogers had a 65-percent completion rate while opposing quarterbacks connected on 61-percent of their throws against Pittsburgh. The Packers need to make the passing game their form of ball control. Third down at any distance is tough against the rush happy Steelers. But Rogers can buy time with his feet and the Packers have enough receivers to spread the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers must contain Rogers in the pocket where they can hit him often and force a fumble or an interception.

Special Teams

Neither team excelled on special teams, nor are there exploitable disparities between them in any area of the kicking or punting game. If there’s a special teams edge it belongs to the Steelers. Pittsburgh connected on 78-percent of their field goal attempts while Green Bay converted just 70-percent. That doesn’t seem like much, especially when neither team plays home games under kicker-friendly conditions. But the open end of Heinz Field makes it the NFL’s toughest venue for converting field goals. That degree of difficulty plus an eight point edge in accuracy percentage equals a clear advantage for the Steelers.

How does it end?

Aaron Rogers will have a sound game and the Packers will move the ball. But without a ground game to slow the Pittsburgh pass rush Green Bay will become one-dimensional, making it difficult to sustain drives. The Steelers should simply play their defense; stuff the run and pressure the quarterback. An interception or two will be more than the Packers can overcome. Pittsburgh pressure will make it difficult for the Packers receivers to finish their routes. Third and five or greater is Green Bay’s worst enemy.

The running game is the key for Pittsburgh. They needn’t be dominant on the ground; just good enough to tire the Green Bay defense and counter their blitz. A few well-timed draws or screens should benefit Pittsburgh, taking pressure off Roethlisberger and opening up deep routes for Mike Wallace. If the Packers blanket Wallace on deep routes Roethlisberger can find Hines Ward and Heath Miller underneath.

Pittsburgh will hoist its seventh Lombardi Trophy, solidifying their status as the NFL’s most successful franchise of the last forty years. The defense will play the major role, but the quarterback will get the glory. Ben Roethlisberger, despite his off-field drama, earns legendary status in the Steel City with his third Super Bowl title, equaling Troy Aikman and Tom Brady. He also moves a step closer to joining Bart Starr, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the most successful championship signal-callers in NFL history.

Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Green Bay Packers 14

Statistics and league rankings: NFL.com.
Red zone efficiency: www.teamrankings.com